State: Aggressive measures can slow spread

  • 0
Good Shepherd

Hospital workers screen people arriving at Good Shepherd Medical Center in Hermiston on Monday afternoon. The hospital has limited all visitors, shut down all elective surgeries and is screening everyone arriving at the campus.

SALEM — If state officials lifted the range of measures they have taken to slow the spread of the new coronavirus, an estimated 15,000 Oregonians could be sickened by the virus by May 8, according to forecasting models released by the state on Thursday.

Health officials say Oregon is at a “critical moment” in fighting the virus, and that strict measures taken by the state to shut down nearly all public activities could dramatically limit the number of people sickened and requiring care in a hospital. By Thursday at 8 a.m., there were 316 known cases of the coronavirus in Oregon.

State health officials released projections, prepared by the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Washington, of how many people could get sick under three scenarios:

• Current measures cease: an estimated 15,000 people could be infected by May 8;

• Stay-home order ceases, but school closures and bans on large public gatherings continue: an estimated 6,100 people could be infected by May 8;

• Aggressive measures continue: 1,000 people could be infected by May 8.

Each of those estimates fall within a wide range of potential infections, and represent the projected number of cumulative, or overall, infections, of COVID-19 in the state.

Simply put, the figures above do not represent the number of people who would be sick on May 8, but the total number of people who could be sickened in the time leading up to May 8.

The new virus, if left unchecked, could seriously overwhelm the state’s hospital system. Oregon had the lowest per-capita rate of hospital beds in the country in 2018, according to Kaiser Family Foundation data first reported by the Portland Tribune.

Officials also released information about how many Oregonians severely sickened by the new coronavirus could require hospital care by May 8 under the three scenarios:

• Current measures cease: An estimated 1,100 hospitalizations;

• Stay-home order ceases, but school closures and bans on large public gatherings continue: an estimated 340 hospitalizations;

• Aggressive measures continue: “only a small number of inpatient beds” could be required.

“These projections tell us the sacrifices Oregonians are making right now can help to save lives,” said Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state epidemiologist, during a virtual press conference. “At the same time, they paint a dark picture of what could happen if we don’t all work together. We can’t afford to drop our guard.”

Members of a task force appointed by Gov. Kate Brown said the state is taking a number of measures to prepare the health system for the virus. The state is collecting protective gear for medical workers and is working with providers to set up alternative locations for care, such as the 250-bed medical station in Salem.

Regional hospitals have signed agreements to share equipment, workers and patients from “overburdened” hospitals to facilities that have enough room for more, and hospitals are sharing information about how many hospital beds are being used so there is enough supply for patients who will need them.

“Hospital leaders and health officials are doing their part to find beds, secure supplies and protect health care workers,” Brown said in a statement. “Oregonians can make a difference too: stay home and save lives. We all have a role to play in an unprecedented, unified effort across Oregon to stop the coronavirus from taking the tragic toll we’ve seen it claim elsewhere.”

As of Thursday, 684 ventilators were available within the health system, and if aggressive measures stay in place, the state will likely not require near that number to care for COVID-19 patients, Sidelinger said.

But the state could need more ventilators if Oregonians don’t abide by social distancing orders, which could result in more people getting sick and requiring hospital care.

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.

Coronavirus Sections

Get breaking news!

Coronavirus FAQ

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Can I get COVID-19 from my pets or other animals?

There is no reason at this time to think that any animals, including pets, in the United States might be a source of infection with this new coronavirus that causes COVID-19. To date, CDC has not received any reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19 in the United States.

Pets have other types of coronaviruses that can make them sick, like canine and feline coronaviruses. These other coronaviruses cannot infect people and are not related to the current COVID-19 outbreak.

However, since animals can spread other diseases to people, it’s always a good idea to practice healthy habits around pets and other animals, such as washing your hands and maintaining good hygiene.

Should I avoid contact with pets or other animals if I am sick with COVID-19?

You should restrict contact with pets and other animals while you are sick with COVID-19, just like you would around other people. Although there have not been reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19, it is still recommended that people sick with COVID-19 limit contact with animals until more information is known about the new coronavirus. When possible, have another member of your household care for your animals while you are sick. If you are sick with COVID-19, avoid contact with your pet, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food. If you must care for your pet or be around animals while you are sick, wash your hands before and after you interact with pets.

What about imported animals or animal products?

CDC does not have any evidence to suggest that imported animals or animal products pose a risk for spreading COVID-19 in the United States.

What precautions should be taken for animals that have recently been imported from outside the United States?

At this time, there is no evidence that companion animals, including pets and service animals, can spread COVID-19. As with any animal introduced to a new environment, animals recently imported should be observed daily for signs of illness. If an animal becomes ill, the animal should be examined by a veterinarian. Call your local veterinary clinic before bringing the animal into the clinic and let them know that the animal was recently imported from another country.